[
  {
    "date": "2026-05-28",
    "model_id": "claude-opus-4-8",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Claude Opus 4.8 launches",
    "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-8",
    "signal_note": "Same headline price as Opus 4.5 ($5/$25 per 1M tokens) — Anthropic held the line on cost while adding an effort-control dial. No longer Anthropic's most capable model as of June 2026, but still the reference point most comparisons use.",
    "matters": "minor"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-06-16",
    "model_id": "glm-5-2",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "GLM-5.2 reaches general release",
    "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/zai-org/GLM-5.2",
    "signal_note": "MIT-licensed open weights — the most permissive license in this batch of releases; several competitors use bespoke terms that require a commercial agreement above certain revenue or usage thresholds.",
    "matters": "minor"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-07-09",
    "model_id": "gpt-5-6-sol",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "GPT-5.6 Sol reaches general availability",
    "source_url": "https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models/gpt-5.6-sol",
    "signal_note": "Long-context tier (above ~922K input tokens) costs roughly 2x the standard rate — worth checking your typical prompt length before assuming the headline $5/$30 price applies.",
    "matters": "minor"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-07-16",
    "model_id": "kimi-k3",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Kimi K3 launches (API); open weights follow July 26-27",
    "source_url": "https://platform.kimi.ai/docs/pricing/chat-k3",
    "signal_note": "Debuted at #1 on the independent Frontend Code Arena, ahead of GPT-5.6 Sol and Claude Fable 5 in blind evaluation — a genuinely independent result, not a vendor claim. Open weights carry a bespoke license, not plain MIT/Apache.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-08-03",
    "model_id": "qwen3-8-max",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Qwen3.8-Max launches",
    "source_url": "https://www.alibabacloud.com/help/en/model-studio/qwen3-8-max",
    "signal_note": "Debuted as the highest-scoring new entry on the independent DeepSWE leaderboard at launch — one of the few claims in this batch that's independently confirmed rather than self-reported.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-08-13",
    "model_id": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "DeepSeek V4 Pro (0813) exits preview",
    "source_url": "https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813",
    "signal_note": "The steepest single-generation jump we've tracked: DeepSWE went from 12.8 (April preview) to 62.7 in four months. The 'beats Opus 4.8' headline is mostly noise on close inspection — see the verdict — but the generational trajectory itself is real.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-06-09",
    "model_id": "claude-fable-5",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Claude Fable 5 — first Mythos-class model goes GA",
    "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5",
    "signal_note": "A new price tier ($10/$50), not an Opus successor. Independently #1 on Terminal-Bench 2.1 (83.8) — one of the few launch claims a third party has confirmed.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-06-30",
    "model_id": "claude-sonnet-5",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Claude Sonnet 5 released",
    "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-sonnet-5",
    "signal_note": "$2/$10 and 1M context at the family's lowest price — and the intro pricing was later made permanent. Six independent scores on our board; sits well below Opus 5/Fable 5 on coding benchmarks, as priced.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-07-21",
    "model_id": null,
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Gemini 3.6 Flash reaches GA",
    "source_url": "https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/changelog",
    "signal_note": "Workhorse-tier update; Google's Pro line (3.1) is still in preview, so Flash remains its only GA track.",
    "matters": "minor"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-07-24",
    "model_id": "claude-opus-5",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Claude Opus 5 released",
    "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-5",
    "signal_note": "Same $5/$25 as Opus 4.8 it supersedes. Independent runs back the launch claims: #1 on vals.ai SWE-bench Verified (97.0) — though that benchmark is near-saturated.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-08-13",
    "model_id": null,
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "Gemini 3.7 Flash reaches GA",
    "source_url": "https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/changelog",
    "signal_note": "Second Flash GA in a month; intro pricing through 2026-12-31.",
    "matters": "minor"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-08-14",
    "model_id": "glm-5-3",
    "event_type": "release",
    "title": "GLM-5.3 released — subscription-only for now",
    "source_url": "https://docs.z.ai/guides/llm/glm-5.3",
    "signal_note": "Z.ai claims +50% coding over GLM-5.2, but only vendor-harness numbers exist and there's no API pricing yet. Verdict pending independent runs.",
    "matters": "major"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-06-15",
    "model_id": null,
    "event_type": "deprecation",
    "title": "Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4 retired from the API",
    "source_url": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/model-deprecations",
    "signal_note": "Announced April 14, gone June 15 — Anthropic's ~60-day retirement cadence in action. If you pin old model versions, this is the clock you're on.",
    "matters": "minor"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-08-05",
    "model_id": null,
    "event_type": "deprecation",
    "title": "Claude Opus 4.1 retired from the API",
    "source_url": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/model-deprecations",
    "signal_note": "Exactly on its announced schedule; recommended replacement is Opus 4.8. Anthropic says it retires models to free capacity for new releases, and has committed to preserving the weights.",
    "matters": "minor"
  }
]